SG Young Investment
On byWhat Happened To Comfortdelgro? 1.98 now. Uber and Grab seems to have an upper advantage in this taxi cab business competition. It is very important to examine Comfortdelgro’s business as of this junction to see what it is really worth. a year 18 Million. Let’s check out its different business segment and break it up to see what it is actually worth.
2294.2 million. For this segment, there will also be contribution from DTL-3 which will be opening in October 21 this season. This is the tricky part to analyse but I shall try my far better seem sensible of the quantities. 59 million in revenue for the whole FY2017. 59 million. You may still find other countries’ taxi cab segment which may also face headwinds.
The bus place business should remain stable. This segment shall see a decrease as lesser taxi fleet size means lesser servicing revenue also. 45.6 million. A further reduced amount of taxi cab fleet will put forward stresses on this portion moving. 45 Million can be expected. This segment should too stay stable. Car rental has been facing a lesser leasing fleet in Singapore and China. 6.4 Million for FY2017. This segment should remain stable. Now, we can truly add up the various sections and get the FY2017 approximated profit to derive the actual value of the company.
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379.4 Million. This is 17.9% less than in FY2016. With excellent stocks at 2162.8 Million, EPS will be approximated 11.40 cents for FY2017. To put things into perspective, if the taxi cab fleet lowers by another 2000 for another few months, EPS will be about 10.4 cents. 1.98, it shall only appear fair if taxi fleet does not drop too much again. If taxi fleet drastically is constantly on the drop, the problem can get much worser.
1.70 if we exclude the taxi business. That is utilizing a simplistic 20 times multiple of online profit. Obviously, this is only going to happen if all Comfort taxis disappear from the streets forever which I don’t think will happen at least for now. There are several factors to consider in this investment and it is definitely not for the faint hearted.
From my perspective, Comfortdelgro’s taxi business should still persist in Singapore but probably at a smaller market share in the future. 3 stock price value as the market adjusts itself to consider the future value of the ongoing company. For uber and grab, month after month it is still an unknown how long they will keep offering special discounts and burning up cash. How the taxi cab industry shall develop in the future will be for everyone to see.